普通视图

聊聊商业模式——迪士尼

2026年2月1日 13:22

打算把我相对能看得懂的公司商业模式捋一遍,今次讲讲迪士尼。老规矩,内容都是来着我自己这个老股东的理解,从开始建仓到现在,核心仓位拿了很多年了,也是我较大仓位长持的公司中整体回报率最低的一家。我一直奉行只买自己熟悉和(相对能)看得懂的公司这样一个基本原则,因此职业的关系手里大部分持仓都是科技股,像迪士尼这样的公司显得比较另类。

迪士尼是一家传统媒体公司,核心就是内容创作和内容分发,不过和它的竞争对手比起来,它也是向科技激进转型(并且挣扎的)的 “新媒体”。如果说传统媒体有 Comcast 或者 Paramount,纯粹的新媒体像是 Netflix,那么迪士尼就好像是夹在中间。

就像之前分析阿里巴巴这艘商业巨轮一样,要去理解迪士尼的商业模式,可以从这样三个部分来分别审视:

  • 第一版图:娱乐。它贡献了不到一半的营收和不到三成的利润,包括流媒体和电视网络,以及内容授权。
  • 第二版图:体验。略微不到四成的营收,却贡献了接近六成的利润,这其实就是乐园和游轮了,也包括一些周边商品和服务。
  • 第三版图:体育。营收和利润都占小头,基本就是 ESPN。

护城河

迪士尼大概是地球上护城河最宽的非必须消费类公司之一,它的乐园、游轮,还有流媒体,都是护城河,但是一切护城河的核心在于 IP。所有的乐园、游轮、电影、商品,全都是围绕 IP 来运作的,没有 IP,就没有百年迪士尼。

比方说,现在有环球影城这样的主题乐园,发展很快,但是它们始终没法威胁到迪士尼的乐园。原因很简单,因为其它的主题乐园它们再豪华,也不是迪士尼认证的,没有迪士尼那些孩子们心中卡通人物的乐园。你也可以建造最刺激的过山车,但是它肯定不是星球大战过山车,也肯定不是冰雪奇缘过山车。你还可以生产便宜的玩具,但它肯定不是正版的米奇和他的朋友们,也不会是钢铁侠、绿巨人,或者朱迪或者尼克。所以,一句话,IP 就是护城河,IP 就是溢价。

从这个角度来说,IP 的推广,占据用户心智,才是迪士尼的根基。这也是我后来慢慢理解为什么迪士尼要自己做流媒体,砸钱做,即便一年一年亏钱还要继续砸。这里并不是一个简单的自己做流媒体远期能够提高利润率等方面的问题,这是一个生死存亡的问题。如果继续使用 Netflix 的平台,那么哪一天 Netflix 决定掐住迪士尼的喉咙,不让电视上继续播放迪士尼的的卡通形象,这些 IP 不能深入新一代孩子们的内心,无论这个过程有多缓慢,那最终迪士尼的这个经典的盈利的飞轮就彻底转不起来了。

前面说的体验部分和娱乐部分,基本都是围绕着迪士尼那些著名 IP 展开的,这是迪士尼最根基的商业模式。在此之上,也能看到一些其它次要一点的护城河,比如乐园、游轮也好,度假区也罢,都具备一个完整的消费环境,衣食住行,全部都在这个密闭的环境里面完成,结果就是,请把美好回忆带走,但务必把钱留下,这也是它第二重要的商业模式。通常来说,我是不太喜欢重资产的商业模式的,不过它的商业模式和护城河太经典和强悍了,我觉得可以为迪士尼开一个例外。

不过迪士尼的体育板块,还是和上面的略有区别,它的护城河主要是长期锁定的直播权。这部分逻辑上比较简单,并且是租来的,成本肯定没有完全自有的护城河那么可控,也没有那么强悍。

三大版图:娱乐、体验和体育

先说娱乐版图,它包含传统电视、流媒体和占比较小的内容销售。传统电视已经基本上是夕阳产业,现在在娱乐部分依然是贡献大头的利润,但是这部分没有成长性,逐渐萎缩。流媒体是 “转型的主力” 和 “全村的希望”,其实也可以说是刚刚转盈利,但是毕竟开始赚钱了,希望它是一个真正的困境反转。

流媒体伴随着盈利逐渐改善,有一个变化,就是不再纠结于用户数量的提升,而是通过涨价提升 ARPU 和增加广告收入。市场是很乐于看到涨价的,涨价也说明了用户粘性和护城河。

接着是体验版图,这有点像是阿里巴巴的传统电商部分,营收最高并且利润率低于娱乐部分,但能够不断提供源源不断的现金流来发展新业务(特别是前几年持续支持流媒体烧钱)。

美国的本土乐园其实保持低速增长就不错,但是国际乐园还是有很大的空间。只要没有疫情这样的黑天鹅,游轮业务也能逐渐缓慢扩张。总之,这部分通常比较稳定,这部分也是较重的资产和员工人数的主要来源。

最后是体育版图,ESPN 是盈利的,但是面临体育版权费越来越贵的压力。从内容上看,Hulu 和 ESPN 最初似乎都和 Disney 的背景格格不入,但是这是迪士尼扩展用户群的一着棋。ESPN 曾经是非常赚钱的,包括联盟费和广告费等等,但是现在因为有线电视的衰退,这部分有点往鸡肋方向靠拢。然而,无论利润率如何,ESPN 有它的战略地位,ESPN 是 Disney 和 Netflix 竞争的重要筹码。

失去的十年

和很多巨头不一样的是,从 2015 年到现在(2026 年),差不多十年了,迪士尼的股价一直在一个范围内波动,没能获得突破。这挺让人感慨,然而看似卡住的股价背后,发生了天翻地覆的变化。这个转身对于如此传统的一家媒体巨头来说,实属不易。这让我想起了微软 Office 上云的商业模式迁移。

首先,710 亿天价收购 Fox,主要目的是扩充 IP 库。Fox 收购是伤筋动骨的(别忘了当时的净利润只有 120 多亿),为此背负了巨额债务。但是老 Bob(Bob Iger)还真的是既有眼光,又有魄力,如果没有这笔收购,没有内容怎么做流媒体,只有那米老鼠和漫威等等几十部电影。而且除了内容,还拿到了 Hulu 的控制权,这不但从儿童动画拓展到成人剧集,而且技术和运营上它的经验对于做 Disney+是很有帮助的。这笔收购的战略意义太过重大,要是没有 Fox 收购,就没有今天的阿凡达,就没有 X 战警,也没有辛普森和冰河世纪;要是没有 Fox 收购,迪士尼就没法做流媒体,IP 和品牌就会慢慢衰落,前面已经说到了。看看 Paramount,它也是传统媒体,也有海绵宝宝和 Paw Patrol 之类的一堆 IP,但是现在呢,被 Oracle CEO 拉里埃里森的儿子收购和合并。所以,从今天的角度看,这把操作代价是巨大的,但是整体看来还是正确而重要的一步。

然后就是做 Disney+烧钱,跟 Netflix 正面刚。就像一个退休了的老头重新出山来和年轻人在科技领域竞争,学习怎么玩互联网,很不容易,直到现在也谈不上 “擅长”——现在 Netflix 的利润率接近三成,而 Disney+只有个位数。但是因为传统的电视领域的衰落,这是它没有退路的一步棋。从这个角度看,百年老店迪士尼还是非常值得尊敬的,我相信大多数企业都抗不过这个时代的变革。

之后再加上疫情的打击(这类非必须消费而且是重资产,疫情打击是非常大的),分红被迫暂停,股本也一路膨胀,一直到 2023 年结束。之后因为财务状况改善,才慢慢通过回购好起来,现在大致还算处于一个变革期,但是从回购恢复和分红增长来看,最艰难的时间可能已经过去了。

风险与未来

如今,市场关心 Bob Iger 二次出山之后,他需要再次隐退,那谁来接班呢?这可能是短期内迪士尼最大的风险,想起之前 CEO Bob Chapek 被认为把财务放在艺术和传统之上,得了大罪,于是 Bob Iger 被迫重新出山。其次,是袭来的 AI 革命,对于传统动画制作门槛的降低,那么多不确定性都等待尘埃落定。再一个,就和很多重资产的经营一样,这一类生意的脆弱性——疫情也好,衰退也好,一旦出现,它就会受到直接的打击。

再来说说和 Netflix 的竞争,市场迫切希望看到 Disney+能将迪士尼的增长带出来。在我看来,如果要去和 Netflix 拼内容宽度,是没有胜算的。Netflix 在流媒体这块的统治力太足了,无论是内容库的丰富程度还是技术的成熟度,都是迪士尼无法望其项背的。

那么,迪士尼还是要靠自己的 IP,也许用户量没法和 Netflix 比,但是用户心智对于 IP 的深度要培养起来。如果流媒体搞成功了,迪士尼的未来可以打八十分往上,但是如果没搞成功呢?也未必是世界末日,如果我们换个角度思考,和流媒体起着生死攸关作用的 Netflix 不同,对于迪士尼来说,或许流媒体未必非得要有多少盈利,它完全可以只扮演一个 “药引子”——流媒体本身只是渠道,用户看了 Netflix 的动画,整个消费场景就结束了;而用户看了迪士尼的动画,消费场景才刚刚开始,之后他会去乐园、去游轮,去买周边等等。

最后,在这个竞争上,迪士尼还有一个优势,就是 Disney+的动画、Hulu 的神剧和 ESPN 的体育直播捆绑起来的优势,这里面有很多 Netflix 完全没法竞争的内容。

我们在比护城河的时候,主要是在比商业模式。Netflix 呢,它虽然成长很快,但它只有单纯的流媒体和相应的内容,全球用户已经到 3.25 亿了,往上的空间不大,增长很快会遇到天花板(从它最近要收购华纳兄弟来看,也许管理层觉得这一天已经到来了)。因此把时间放长来看,除非它有了新的业务拓展曲线,否则我认为 Netflix 的护城河和 Disney 是完全没法比的。

总之,迪士尼是一家成熟,但在努力转型以根上时代的公司,成长性看起来没有很多互联网公司那么强,但是我还是相信它在这些经典 IP 上的积累,相信它的商业模式,也相信它能平安度过科技转型和困境反转的阶段,价值得到回归。百年迪士尼为我们童年带来过美好的回忆,我真心希望它可以再继续创造经典的角色,陪更多的孩子们度过童年。

《四火的唠叨》文章未经特殊标明皆为本人原创,未经许可不得用于任何商业用途,转载请保持完整性并注明来源链接

My 2025 Annual Review

2026年1月13日 00:40

At the start of 2025, I dubbed this “The Year of Profitability,” and now that it’s come to a close, I can say we successfully fulfilled that intention.

We ended the year with 2.15M in gross revenue, and $650,000 in net profit, for a 30% gross margin. That’s our second-best year ever as a business! Behind only 2021 at the peak of the pandemic.

There were 3 main things we did to make it happen:

  1. Launched a high-ticket, high-margin program that tapped into the surge in demand for AI training among business owners
  2. Kept the team intentionally small and lean, with no new hires
  3. Continued cultivating existing revenue sources, such as the Second Brain Membership

Some of the other wins from the year include: 

  • Launched the official Second Brain Notion Template, which sold over 2,350 copies this year (update coming soon)
  • Grew our Circle community to over 13k members and launched our BASB app for easier access
  • Doubled our publishing cadence to weekly on our YouTube channel, which grew to 373k subscribers and received over 4.8M views in 2025 (consuming a mind-blowing 48 years of combined viewing time)
  • Hosted the seventh edition of our Annual Review program, including beta access to the manuscript of my upcoming book, Life in Perspective
  • Reached 400,000 lifetime sales of my book Building a Second Brain, which is still in the process of being released in more languages and countries

I think what makes me especially proud of these milestones is that we did it all with such a small team. We recently got together for our annual retreat in the town where I live in Mexico (missing Rebecca and Sasa, unfortunately):

Forte Labs Team photo from retreat in Mexico in December 2025

In this review, I’ll share the full story behind our financial turnaround – from YouTube’s explosive growth to the unexpected success and subsequent wind-down of my involvement in Second Brain Enterprise. I’ll also cover the challenges we faced across our ecosystem, our pivot toward AI for 2026, and some major personal milestones, including becoming a gym rat and preparing for baby number three.

Keep reading or watch the video version of this annual review:

YouTube

More than 3 years after I decided to make Forte Labs a YouTube-first company, our YouTube efforts really came into their own in 2025.

We had our first massively viral video, on Google’s NotebookLM, breaking the 1M view mark for the first time. This one video led to 31,000 new subscribers and a staggering 145,000 hours of watch time.

But YouTube came into its own not just in terms of attracting attention, which it’s been doing for awhile, but as a sales channel. Most of the $1.5M in sales we made from our new AI program, Second Brain Enterprise, came from just a handful of videos there, and we proved that people will make major purchases directly off the platform.

We are now clearly a YouTube-first business, with 53% of our audience growth and 36% of customer discovery happening there. I’m so happy that I decided back in 2022 to pursue it as our main platform, as we wouldn’t have much of a business right now if we hadn’t. 

Graph of total YouTube audience November 2025

This graph tracking our following across all our platforms shows how YouTube (in red) is in a league of its own when it comes to attracting new followers, due to the power of the algorithm in finding new audiences.

Audience Tracking Line Graph

Despite all these positive signals, there were also some negative ones as well:

  • Our average clickthrough rate (a measure of how many people see our thumbnails and decide to click on them) was 4.3%, which is low compared to a target benchmark for best-in-class educational channels of around 8%.
  • Although we gained a lot of subscribers, the percentage of returning viewers (which I’m learning is far more important than subscribers) was down 27% due to our changed focus on B2B content that wasn’t relevant to most subscribers.
  • Average Percentage Viewed, a measure of how long people watch on average, was down slightly from 24% to 20% (this was partly due to our videos becoming quite a bit longer, but is also worrisome as it’s one of the main numbers that the algorithm looks for).

Most of these negative signals can be attributed to a pivot we made mid-year to B2B-centric AI topics, to support the launch of our Second Brain Enterprise program. That sharp shift in focus led to a lot of churn, confusion, and aversion from our typical viewership. More on that below.

In light of all this, we’re doubling down on YouTube yet again and strengthening the foundation for next year by increasing our publishing cadence to weekly as of this past October. In 2024, we released 31 videos, in 2025 it was 37, and in 2026 we’re aiming for around 46-48. It’s taken us several years to slowly build up the team and the capability to move at this speed, but I’m expecting the higher cadence to give us more opportunities to learn, iterate, and double down on what’s working. 

Website, blog, and email list

The picture for our older ecosystem – which I think of as our website, blog, and email list working together – is less positive.

Part of it is that I’m writing much less on the blog, having released only 21 articles in 2025. That’s partly because I have less time overall since becoming a father, and partly because any concentrated writing time I do have goes to writing books now. 

But a major external factor is that the landscape of online attention is rapidly changing. Blogs are all but dying in the face of competition from algorithmic platforms and Substack. And SEO is being undermined by LLMs that stop people from even searching for things in the first place by giving them the straight up answer.

The blog still attracted 952k visits in 2025, though that is 25% less than the year before. The U.S. accounts for 38% of our website visitors, but we saw an 80% increase from China, which I assume is due to my books being released there. LLMs already account for 3.5% of all visitors, despite the fact that we haven’t done anything to optimize or encourage that. I can see in the coming years AI coming to dominate how people find content online.

Lead magnets are also becoming much less effective, I assume because AI now allows you to create something similar in seconds. Every single source of traffic to our website shows a 40-94% decline in subscription rates, regardless of whether traffic went up or down. This means that organic email subscriptions are way down over the last few years: from 237 per day in 2022 to 115 per day in 2025, a 50% drop. We’re becoming more dependent on “events” such as webinars, viral YT videos, and partnerships and having to work harder to convince people to join our newsletter.

Despite those headwinds, 63k people subscribed to our newsletter this year, representing a 4.23% subscription rate. Once they’re there, engagement is strong, with 48.6% open rates and 3.8% click rates.

Incredibly, in 2025 the average time someone was on our email list before purchasing was only 3 days, which reveals that they don’t necessarily need a lot of nurturing first. The smaller number of people who sign up are also more committed. The total conversion rate from our email list to all products was a healthy 2.75% – which means 1 in 36 people who join our email list end up buying something.

Second Brain Enterprise

This was the big one this year. In last year’s goal-setting, I had a vague intention of launching some kind of AI course in 2025, but had no idea at the time what it would look like. I was open to serendipity, and that serendipity arrived when I met a serial entrepreneur named Hayden Miyamoto who happened to live in the same small town in Mexico. We connected over paddle tennis, and the idea was born out of our shared obsession with AI.

We committed to a 6-month experiment: we would teach 3 cohorts of a brand-new program that we’d create from scratch based on our experience, research, and experimentation. It would be designed for business owners and leaders, prioritize implementation and practical results, and be priced at a level that would make it a significant business investment.

I can now say that that experiment was wildly successful, with almost 200 participants from more than 150 companies having completed the program.

It was so successful, in fact, that it created a bit of an identity crisis for me. It made sense to run the first few cohorts through our existing team and infrastructure at Forte Labs, but for it to reach its potential, we realized it needed its own team, its own infrastructure, and actually a whole new company completely centered on this market. So Hayden has started a new company, EMPOWER Labs, to do just that, and I’ll no longer be involved with it.

This was a difficult decision, but there were many valuable lessons I learned through this collaboration:

  • Long-term joint ventures don’t suit me. I don’t like coordinating with another co-founder to reach consensus on decisions, even if they are perfectly reasonable and aligned with my values. I originally became self-employed to maximize my autonomy and creative freedom, and that continues to be my main priority today.
  • I realized that although B2B implementations of AI interest me, it isn’t where my experience and expertise are rooted. I haven’t started and don’t run multiple profitable businesses, and therefore didn’t see myself as the best leader for a program designed to serve those needs.
  • Through creating this new program, I discovered anew how strong my personal brand is, how much trust people place in me, and how valuable BASB is as a brand and ecosystem perfectly positioned as a stepping stone into the world of AI. But all of that trust and reputation wasn’t built on B2B positioning, and I saw that I’d have to largely abandon much of what I’ve built in order to pursue this new direction, and wasn’t willing to do that.
  • I saw how effective a sales team can be, and how feasible it was to recruit, onboard, and train facilitators for the cohorts. These are things Hayden does routinely. But I had never seen so many key functions handed off to new people so quickly and effectively. In the first 3 cohorts, we had 5 separate facilitators, an eye-opening example of the power of delegation. I plan on replicating this model in the future to make cohort-based education more sustainable for me.
  • I saw clearly the tangible benefits of a high price point. It benefitted us, by making the customer service burden small and profitability high. But I’m certain it also benefitted our customers, as it inspired such a higher level of commitment from them and their teams.

An underlying doubt I’ve had over the last few years is what education and training would look like in the AI era. So many people have declared the “death of content” or the “death of courses” and I think I bought in a little too much into that doomsday perspective. Second Brain Enterprise demonstrated for me that there’s more need than ever for education around how to use AI effectively, and showed how coaching, interaction, community, and implementation can all serve as moats and differentiators in this new era.

Most of all, I saw that in order to fully pursue this new market, I’d have to dramatically change my focus, what I was working on, my goals and incentives, and I wasn’t willing to do that. I value the total freedom and eclectic mix of random projects I currently pursue too much. That was a valuable realization in itself.

However, I still believe in the program and am confident it’s going to be better than ever. It’s essentially Second Brain principles, infused and leveraged by AI, and applied at a company level – capturing, organizing, and leveraging organizational knowledge the same way individuals do with personal knowledge.

Cohort 4 launches on January 26th, 2026. I’m an affiliate and advocate, and encourage you to join!

Pivoting BASB toward AI

Every few months, I revisit and update the numbers related to my book sales, and every time I do, I come to a new appreciation of what an area of strength this is.

Building a Second Brain has now sold 400,000 copies worldwide, an amazing milestone that I can barely wrap my head around. It continues to sell about 115,000 copies per year (9,500 per month, 2,200 per week) like clockwork. As time goes by, this is increasingly an outlier, indicating that it’s becoming a “category of one” driven by word-of-mouth. Such a book is more like a business asset than a piece of content, and will likely reach half a million copies sold sometime in 2026.

I find myself in the incredible position of standing at the edge of the breaking AI wave, with a sizable audience of early adopters, and a brand and ecosystem built around the “second brain,” a name that seems like it was destined for AI like no other. Everything that’s happening with AI seems like the perfect continuation and expansion of what I was trying to accomplish with my book, except now far more leveraged and accessible.

In 2026, I plan on creating another cohort-based program, this time centered on the needs of individuals – professionals, freelancers, creators, entrepreneurs, and executives who are adopting AI deeply into how they think and work. In other words, we’re going to officially pivot BASB to be AI-first, and do our best to create a curriculum that democratizes this technology and way of working, the same way we did for Personal Knowledge Management.

More to come soon!

 

Life in Perspective book

I’m in the home stretch of this project, which has dominated my time for the last two years and especially 2025.

It’s been a more challenging project than I expected. There are a number of tricky framing and positioning issues, such as the connotation of “annual reviews” as being about performance reviews at work, which most people hate. I’ve had a few crises of faith, where I doubted whether this book was really needed in the world or had something truly unique to offer. 

In contrast to BASB, which was introducing a new methodolgy, annual life reviews are largely about tried-and-true methods that have been around a long time. My contribution is fourfold: 

  1. To make it more emotion-centered, embodied, and intuitive, rather than strictly analytical
  2. To add technology to the process as an enabling force
  3. To center it on an appreciative lens that values what’s good, rather than what’s missing
  4. To create a community of practice where people can learn from and with each other, enabled by the Internet

This book also represents a diversification of the topics I’m associated with, including goal setting, visualization, gratitude, presence, intuition, long-term planning, and even spirituality. There are pros and cons to this kind of diversification, I’m learning. On YouTube, for example, mixing so many topics together on one channel may send confusing signals to the algorithm as certain groups are turned off by topics they’re not interested in. 

But ultimately, I believe that annual life reviews are a powerful force for good in the world, I think many more people can and should take advantage of them, and AI is going to make them radically more doable and useful. And the upsell from the book to the live program, which we’ll continue to offer annually, I’m confident will become a pillar of the business. 

For now, the most surprising development has been using a platform called HelpThisBook.com. It allows you to upload a manuscript, and then invite “beta readers” to leave comments and reactions in a simple interface. We invited 600 participants in the current Annual Review 2026 program to share their feedback on it, and so far over 500 of them have done so, leaving over 3,200 reactions and comments across 21,000 reading sessions, which is just remarkable. 

This would be totally overwhelming to review and absorb, except for the fact that most of those are simple emoji reactions (including “I like this,” “This is confusing,” “This part is slow,” and “This is useful”). There are some sentences with 20+ positive reactions, which tells me clearly that the idea is resonating and should be emphasized more or moved earlier in the book. This kind of data is priceless for an author, and will dramatically shape how the book is written and marketed.

2026 Projects

Here is the full range of projects we’re considering taking on in 2026:

Forte Labs 2026 Projects Map

The ones in bold are the ones we plan on pursuing:

  1. Release v2 of the official Second Brain Notion template – my goal is for anyone seeking to build their Second Brain in Notion to have a useful template as a starting point.
  2. Launching a new cohort-based course teaching people how to build a Second Brain with AI – my goal is 200 participants, 1 million in revenue, and $500k in profit in the first year.
  3. Pivot the Second Brain Membership to become AI-centric – my goal is to cover all our fixed and recurring expenses with recurring revenue from it.
  4. Redesign our self-paced courses to incorporate AI personalization – my goal is to make our courses more effective and impactful for those seeking support.
  5. Redesign the Forte Labs website – my goal is to modernize our main website and make it the main portal for discoverability of all our content, products, and services.
  6. Host an AI virtual summit – continuing a tradition from past years, I want to host a free virtual summit bringing together experts on how to use AI for human augmentation and leveraging knowledge.
  7. Launching my next book Life in Perspective in Nov. 2026 – my goal is 15,000 pre-orders and 100,000 sales in the first 6 months.
  8. The Annual Review program 2027 – my goal is to make this the best source of guidance and accountability on successfully completing an annual life review, based on the material in my book.

Overall, I’d love to replicate the financial results of this year again next year.

Open questions for 2026

As usual, these are the open questions I’m holding as we begin the new year. If you have any ideas for potential answers let me know!

  • What should the community we build around annual life reviews look like?
  • How can we reinvent the self-paced course format with AI personalization?
  • How should our web presence be organized across Forte Labs, BASB, and the new Life in Perspective book?
  • Which direction should we take our BASB app?
  • How can we more deeply use AI in our internal workflows and automations?
  • How can we create and protect time for open-ended experimentation?

My personal life

New baby

The big news on the family front is…we’re expecting a new daughter, due in early June.

I was going to write a separate post on how and why we decided to have a third child. In a funny way, two kids feels normal, but three seems kind of extreme and almost demands an explanation! But I think it’s actually quite simple: there is nothing in our lives that produces anywhere near as much joy, fulfillment, and meaning as our kids, so why wouldn’t we want another one?

We have the blessing of being able to afford it, not just financially, but because we have large families that can help us. Part of our motivation is ensuring that our children continue to have that same blessing – of multiple siblings – as it’s priceless.

The other major enabling factor is living in Mexico. The slower pace of life centered around community, a kid-friendly culture that welcomes and cherishes them, and of course, our full-time help at affordable prices all make this so much more feasible and natural. We’ve noticed that many, if not most, of the families at our school have three kids, and that’s no accident.

I became a gym rat

My proudest accomplishment in 2025 on the personal front was that I became a gym rat! After spending our first 9 months in Valle complaining about the lack of good exercise options, and suffering through all kinds of aches and pains, I finally found a solution that works exceedingly well. 

According to my exercise tracking app, Fitbod (which I love and recommend), I lifted over 500,000 pounds this year, across 52 workouts, mostly in the latter two-thirds of the year. That is definitely the most consistently I’ve ever exercised, and I’m now in the best shape of my life by far. 

Tiago at Gym 2025

Exercise has been my “white whale” – my biggest unresolved problem – for as long as I can remember. Every year in my review, I identify it as my greatest area of weakness and need. And what I’m surprised by as I look back is just how long it took to find a sustainable answer:

  • Finding a nearby gym that was open and empty during the middle of the day when I like to workout (I was surprised to realize how much a full gym discourages me)
  • Hiring a nanny who picks up the kids from school and watches them in the afternoons (which I’ve found is the ideal time for me to work out, as a transition from work to family time)
  • Buying a second car so that I could work out during the hour that she’s picking up the kids (so I don’t lose out on either work time or time with the kids)
  • Downloading a workout app (Fitbod) that generates customized workouts each day for me (this has been so helpful to consistently build strength while also providing variation and rotation)

Besides these practical measures, the background effect of aging as I hit 40 this year provided me with a whole new set of reasons and motivations for staying in shape. I’m in pain now whether I work out or not, so the only choice is whether I want to be in pain from gaining strength, or from losing it. I’ve also been noticing that I can no longer reliably get into deep focus with my work unless I exercise, which provides yet another source of motivation.

At the start of the year, I asked the open question “How can I make irreversible decisions to preserve my willpower?” The best one I found this year ended up being hiring a nanny specifically to watch the kids every day, just so I could exercise. That turned out to be a better source of accountability even than hiring a personal trainer, because once she arrived at the house, I wasn’t about to sit around and do nothing.

When I look in the mirror, I’m amazed to see someone who actually craves going to the gym, who looks forward to lifting heavy weights (of all things). I don’t recognize myself, in other words, and that’s the best feeling in the world. The better physique and strength is just icing on the cake compared to that. 

At the same time, 2025 was also the sickest year I can remember. I got bad colds twice, and the flu twice, which meant days at a time in which I was knocked completely offline. I know it was partly due to living in an unfamiliar environment in Mexico, partly from having small children, but the lesson I’m drawing from this is that it’s time for me to take other parts of my health as seriously as I took weight lifting this next year.

Starting to think about Brazil

One of the most amazing phenomena I’ve noticed from doing these reviews for 18 years now is how you can suddenly reach a certain milestone, and a whole new season of your life can suddenly come into view. Like exiting a mountain pass and surveying the vast valley that lies beyond it.

We’ve been living in Valle de Bravo for 18 months now, and all of the sudden I have a sense of how long we’re likely to stay here: another 3.5 years, until the summer of 2029. That will mean 5 years of living here in total, which I think is more than enough for the kids to acquire the language, create a connection with the culture, and for us to all form a true community. It also means we’ll have permanent residency in Mexico by then, and can return anytime.

That horizon, in turn, makes the next stage start to come into view: After Mexico, I want to move straight to Brazil and do the same thing all over again. Seeing how meaningful and fun it’s been for the kids in Mexico, I want them to have the same connection to my family’s homeland so we don’t lose that heritage. I’m thinking a small beach town along the southern coast of Brazil for another 5 years, which will put my oldest at 14 years of age in 2034.

I previously asked the question, “What experiences do I want to have with Caio and Delia over the next 10–15 years, while they’re small?” and the clearest answer I’ve arrived at is adventuring around Latin America. 

Built a community

The second proudest accomplishment of the year for me was building a community in Valle. At the start of the year, I asked myself, “What does my jealousy of other people tell me is missing in my life?” and the answer was: I was most jealous of people with deep friendships.

I invested a lot in that area this year, saying yes to almost every invite, finding a group of men who meet every month, and attending many birthday parties with the same families from the school every couple weeks. This is where true satisfaction in life lies: in feeling seen and known and held by a group of people who care about you. I plan on continuing to deepen that aspect of my life in 2026.

The problem of no problem

An interesting thing I noticed during this year’s review that I can’t remember ever feeling is that there was no single, obvious, pressing problem for me to resolve.

Last year, it was the profitability of the business, and we solved that in 2025. In past years, it was exercise, and that’s now also on solid ground. Across the landscape of my work and life, there is no looming threat or urgent crisis demanding my attention.

That is, of course, a tremendous blessing. Much of my 20s and 30s felt like having to work so hard, to build things, to advance and progress – maybe now I get to enjoy the life I’ve built? What a concept!

I have to say that it’s a bit disorienting, to be honest. It’s helpful to have a central issue to orient everything else around, and the lack of one is making me feel uncertain, unmoored, a bit at a loss. I think the main theme of my life is now about savoring and enjoying life, not conquering it, and I’m not completely sure how to go about that.

Suggestions from those who are further ahead on that path are always welcome.


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What I’ve Learned From 20 Years of Goal-Setting

2025年11月4日 00:06

In the summer of 2005, when I was 20 years old, I sat down and wrote one of my first personal goals:

“Hold a position in the Associated Student Government of Saddleback College at start of Fall semester (August 22, 2005).”

I had just dropped out of college on the East Coast after burning through all my college savings in one year. I’d moved back in with my parents in shame and enrolled in a local community college to try and get my life back on track. Writing down this goal was my first tentative attempt at regaining a sense of control and agency.

I can remember it like it was yesterday – how daunting it felt to commit to this goal, despite the fact that the position was uncontested and there were no real barriers to my winning it in the upcoming student government elections!

Even such a small, easy commitment required me to confront limiting beliefs: that I wasn’t good with numbers or with money. Even entertaining such a small amount of ambition meant I had to shift my identity, since I didn’t remotely see myself as a leader.

I’m happy to say that I persevered through those fears, took on the position successfully, and it ended up being a very rewarding part of my college career. More importantly, it was the inception of my relationship with goals.

Reveling in this first small victory, I soon after decided to write down a series of other goals I had for myself – for the GPA I would attain, for the girlfriend I wanted, and for the 4-year college I wanted to transfer to.

I discovered SMART goals around that time, and decided to attach a target completion date to each of them. Looking back at that list, the furthest date I assigned to my most ambitious goal was in 2025, when I would turn 40 years old. At the fresh-faced age of 20, I couldn’t fathom being any older than that. It was the farthest my imagination could reach.

Now that I’ve arrived at that seemingly distant horizon, I want to revisit not only that first batch of goals, but all the goals I’ve formulated for myself in the 20 years since. I’m less interested in which ones I accomplished or didn’t, and more interested in what I discovered and who I became by aiming for them in the first place.

Let me take you on a retrospective journey through 20 years of goal-setting to find out what I learned.

Building the foundation of adulthood

Looking at the list of outcomes I said I wanted in the earliest days, I can see that I was struggling and striving to build the foundation of my adult life.

Some goals had to do with seemingly small projects, such as creating a website to promote my first business, fixing people’s home computers:

“Build a professional, full-featured website for Forte Computer Solutions by beginning of Spring semester (January 14, 2006).”

I remember I didn’t succeed because there were no user-friendly website builders at the time, and I didn’t have enough motivation to learn HTML. But it was my first personal experience with the challenge of building things with technology, a subject I’m still grappling with today.

Some goals had to do with deep mindset shifts I underwent, such as diving into the world of Robert Kiyosaki’s book Rich Dad, Poor Dad:

“Complete Rich Dad’s curriculum: read and take notes on all Rich Dad books, master Cashflow 101 and 202, and read all books recommended by Robert Kiyosaki by end of Spring semester (May 20, 2007).”

I’d been raised by artists, and as useful as that was for my creative integrity, it didn’t give me any of the financial or business skills I needed. I spent over a year completely immersed, reading all Kiyosaki’s books, and many others he recommended, and even purchasing his financial education board game and playing it with my friends and family. 

Looking back, I can see how fundamental that experience was for giving me an abundance mentality toward money – that it could be reliably earned, leveraged, multiplied, and compounded, and in a creative and values-aligned way.

Other goals seemed quite random and incidental at the time, such as getting my first English teaching job in Curitiba, Brazil, where I was studying abroad:

“Get a job teaching English at an established school in Curitiba by end of March 2008.”

Yet I now realize that experience opened up the door to my entire career in education. I see repeated evidence that some of the biggest endeavors in my life started so small.

Other projects were clearly massive from the start, and I have no idea what I was thinking taking on something so ambitious:

“Write Beyond the Orange Curtain and have it published by New Year (January 1, 2011).”

That was my first book, and I took every conceivable shortcut I could find to make it real. The chapters of the book were just unedited posts from my travel blog. I used a service called Blurb to design the front and back covers on my computer, and uploaded it to Kindle Direct Publishing. I remember I couldn’t bring myself to charge anyone for it, so instead I made it a fundraiser and donated all the proceeds to charity.

Fast-forwarding a couple of years to the start of my career, my goals started involving higher stakes. I began making real decisions about where my life would lead, with irreversible tradeoffs.

Kicking off my professional career

I returned to the U.S. from my service in the Peace Corps in December 2011, and immediately dedicated myself to finding a job in San Francisco:

“Get a job in the technology or non-profit sector and move to San Francisco by April 30, 2012.”

A few months later, I found myself in that city interviewing for the two jobs I’d received offers for: a junior analyst job at a French consulting firm called Fabernovel, and a role on the fundraising team at the Wikimedia Foundation (which manages Wikipedia, among other projects).

These paths couldn’t have been more different: the former represented a sharp turn into the world of business and technology, while the latter would have continued my current trajectory deeper into the world of non-profits. But I was already wary of the non-profit world. I’d spent much of my 20s in it, and seen a lot of dysfunction, politics, and waste. I decided I wanted to try something new and accepted the consulting job.

At that point, I notice a gap in my running list of goals, and I think it was because for the 18 months I worked at the consulting firm, I wasn’t responsible for choosing my own goals. They were assigned to me, in line with the broader goals of the company. That was useful, to see what it felt like for my personal goals to be subsumed into a wider mission.

I see my own agency emerge again in early 2013, as I started thinking about leaving consulting. I wanted to work on technology more directly, and started planning how I would apply to a tech company like Google, Coursera, Evernote, Udemy, Autodesk, Uber, IDEO, or Tesla.

I had no real technical skills, however, and knew I would need a stellar resume to have any chance. I signed up for a Squarespace account and built my own website, with a portfolio showcasing my credentials and accomplishments:

“Publish an online professional portfolio with documented evidence of my accomplishments, in a beautifully designed format by July 1, 2013.”

That ended up not being nearly enough, and I failed to secure even one interview for any of the roles I applied for at those companies. 

A few months later, in June 2013, after yet another long night at the office banging my head on the keyboard and getting nowhere, I decided to call it quits. I was working too hard, for too little pay, and with too little control of my destiny. I would rather take my chances on my own.

Embarking on the journey of self-employment

As soon as my two weeks’ notice was up, I turned my portfolio website into a business website and threw myself into trying to make money any way I could think of. 

I worked at random events, helped my friends with their projects as a subcontractor, and made my first online course on the GTD productivity method. That course ended up being an unexpected hit, and paid the bills for a while:

“Launch GSD.LAB on Skillshare and get 1,000 paying students signed up by Jan. 1, 2014.”

With a bit of financial breathing room, I had some freedom to experiment, and experiment I did. Looking back, I can see that many of the seeds of my future endeavors were planted around this time as seemingly low-stakes experiments. 

I volunteered to give a talk at a local Quantified Self meetup, which introduced me to the subculture of people using technology for personal development in a systematic way:

“Create and deliver an inspiring, moving, cutting edge talk on my QS experiments for the QS SV Meetup on Nov. 18, 2013.”

The Quantified Self community ended up being my gateway to an adjacent field – personal knowledge management – that would become my main focus in the ensuing years. That talk actually took place at the Evernote headquarters in Redwood City, foreshadowing my relationship with the platform that would be my tool of choice for building my “second brain.”

After the lucky success of my first online course, I found it very difficult to continue making that income stream work sustainably. It was too hard to build the following I knew I needed, while also creating more courses and other products, while also doing everything else involved in running a business. I saw the potential of that career path, but wasn’t ready for it, so I turned to corporate training at the invitation of a mentor:

“Sign a major corporate training contract for productivity/workflow design by Apr. 1, 2014.”

Those workshops were well paid, and gave me a financial lifeline for a couple of years. More importantly, they happened infrequently, giving me lots of free time to learn new skills and pursue new interests.

Setting goals for my personal development

The life of a freelancer was quite uncertain and stressful, and I turned to meditation around this time as a basic survival measure after seeing an introductory book on it mentioned on an online forum one night:

“Establish a daily mindfulness meditation practice by May 31, 2014.”

That would eventually lead me to join a 10-day silent meditation retreat:

“Attend a 10-day meditation retreat by August 31, 2014.”

That experience was so profound that I felt compelled to write about it, which became my first blog post on a fledgling site called Medium. The meditation retreat was free, requiring only 10 days of my time. And yet it was a seismic shock to my psychology, kicking off two of the most significant themes that continue to define my life to this day: writing in public and my further explorations of personal growth experiences.

My next such exploration was to join a weekend seminar called the Landmark Forum, which I’d heard several friends talk about:

“Attend a Landmark Forum program by Dec. 31, 2016.”

I can still remember how daunting it felt to spend $700 of my own money on a seminar. And yet again, the return-on-investment was incalculable. I spent two years immersing myself in the world of Landmark as a result, taking a series of their other courses and seminars, culminating in their 7-month leadership program along with my then-girlfriend Lauren.

I see so many examples of how saying “yes” to something that seemed inconsequential at the time opened up entire new worlds for me. As another example, I agreed to write a series of 5 guest articles for an obscure blog I followed called Ribbonfarm. That experience was my training for writing long-form thought pieces, which would deepen my writing and thinking, attract my first consistent following, and give me exposure to a vibrant community that was the perfect testing ground for my own emerging ideas about productivity:

“Write a 5-post guest series on Ribbonfarm, laying out my vision for productivity and recruiting a smart audience by Jan. 31, 2017.”

And sometimes personal growth was less about reaching some mountain peak of experience, but about taking the time to engage in non-goal-oriented activities. I’m certain, for example, that the time I spent sailing was really important for my mental health:

“Receive Junior Skipper certification from Cal Sailing Club by August 31, 2015.”

I turned to sailing in 2015 when I needed an outlet that had nothing to do with my work, gave me exercise and exposure to nature, and helped me make new friends. The Cal Sailing Club operating out of the Berkeley Marina was my lifeline in all those respects, and I’m so grateful I set aside the time from my professional pursuits to learn to sail there.

The rise of Building a Second Brain

As I saw my ideas start to gain traction, an earlier vision returned: of creating an independent career of reading, researching, writing, and teaching, like a freelance professor. 

I remember vividly in the fall of 2016 when a new goal emerged along these lines, which was intimidating, but also the perfect synthesis of everything I’d learned over the previous few years:

“Create a new online course on digital organization and creative execution, and deliver it to 50 people at premium prices, by Feb. 28, 2017”

As I reentered the online course space, I wanted to approach it differently from the “self-paced” course model that hadn’t worked for me previously. It’s agonizing to see evidence of how long it took me to arrive at that new approach! 

Like watching the main character in a movie stumble around and miss all the obvious clues, it’s all so clear with my 20/20 hindsight vision. I wrote vaguely about creating some kind of “bootcamp,” which would eventually give rise to the cohort-based course model and a whole new category of virtual education.

Around that time, I switched from single-sentence SMART goals to more narrative-style visualization that contained more detail and specificity:

“I run a regular virtual bootcamp, enrolling my most engaged followers in a high-quality, engaging, accountable learning experience using the latest ideas and tools. I have a system for updating and delivering these bootcamps with minimal recurring effort, dedicating most of my time to providing coaching, feedback, and support for their projects and businesses. This bootcamp helps me test and refine the key components of my new vision for productivity, generating testimonials, case studies, and examples for a book.”

My first small beta group ended up being only 15 people, mostly friends or acquaintances who agreed to be part of it for free, in exchange for providing their feedback. We met once a week for 4 weeks, and I recall creating the slides for each call immediately before it took place, based on the feedback from the previous one.

That feedback, thankfully, was excellent, and I went on to deliver a series of cohorts to slowly growing numbers of people, at slowly increasing prices. I can remember reaching the following goal, which finally confirmed that this was a sustainable model for me:

“Deliver BASB v3 to 80 people, generating $48k in revenue, by August 31, 2018.”

It’s astonishing to me to look back on this fledgling start and see what Building a Second Brain has become. In the 7 years since, it’s served hundreds of thousands of people via an ecosystem of books, courses, a membership, and a sea of content, created both by me and countless others. Yet it all began with a goal written down on paper.

It’s also amazing to look back on issues that once occupied a lot of bandwidth and stress, such as putting aside money for taxes and making estimated tax payments, which are now completely automated, and I don’t spend one second thinking about. Other concerns that once seemed unbelievably far in the future, such as saving for retirement, now feel much more relevant since reducing our tax burden has thankfully become our main problem!

What I learned from unfulfilled or delayed goals

I’ve recounted a succession of the goals that worked out and led to something greater, but I can also see many, many others that fizzled out, were off the mark to begin with, or would take far longer to come to fruition than I imagined.

In early 2017, I felt a desire to connect with other creators and entrepreneurs, since that lifestyle could be so solitary so much of the time. I had no idea what that could look like concretely, however, and you can see that lack of clarity in how I worded it:

“Establish a group of like-minded, ambitious, engaged people for mutual learning, accountability, community, and growth by June 30, 2017.”

That desire would persist and only grow over the years, before finally manifesting as the Wholesome Mastermind I would start 6 years later, in 2023. In retrospect, I can see that I wasn’t ready to host an event like that one until I’d reached a certain level of financial stability and gained enough of a reputation that other entrepreneurs would be willing to join.

Other goals seemed to take shape quickly, but would involve many iterations before I figured them out. In 2017, I decided to hire someone for the first time, as the BASB cohorts took off and I needed a course manager to handle the logistics:

“Establish a solid working relationship with a collaborator, significantly boosting my productivity and profitability by Dec. 31, 2017.”

I can still remember how scary that was, what an immense responsibility it felt like, and how hesitant and unclear my expectations were. I hired the first person who offered to work with me, without any semblance of a wider search. Eight years later, and after hiring probably 20 people in the interim, I’m finally starting to feel like I’ve achieved a balance of autonomy and accountability with my team.

The narrative style of goal-setting that I adopted around this time led to an unexpected side effect: it revealed a lot more detail about my mistaken assumptions around what would bring me happiness and fulfillment. The results are often insightful or funny.

In early 2014, I wrote: 

“I wake up after a restful night of sleep, which was tracked by QS devices for later analysis. I record my health metrics using a smart scale, activity tracker wristband, and other QS devices.”

LOL! At this time, I was neck-deep in the Quantified Self movement and related ideas, and believed that self-optimization was the path to self-fulfillment. If only I could achieve a high enough sleep score, fitness score, productivity score, etc., then surely I’d be happy!

That optimization mindset extended to my surroundings and the products I bought:

“My chair was chosen after in-depth research and perfectly supports my spine. I’ve also studied and practiced the best sitting techniques and ergonomic positioning, and use them.”

Thankfully, not long after this period, I would realize what a dead-end self-optimization becomes after a certain point. I learned to satisfice instead: to allow most parts of life to be relaxed and somewhat “mediocre” at any given time, so I could focus my energies on a few things that truly matter.

In 2014, I invested a lot of time and money launching my second online course, on habits, which would end up being a tremendous flop:

“I am teaching an online course on behavior design, teaching newcomers how to make a plan for designing and sustaining new habits, and how to execute the plan using the best ideas, methodologies, and tools out there.”

My choice of topic was spot on, as the meteoric success of Atomic Habits a few years later would demonstrate. But in retrospect, I can see exactly what didn’t work: what I was teaching wasn’t authentic to me. I’ve never been particularly committed to habits or a routine of any kind. I don’t even really believe in them, preferring to flex and adapt my choices to how I feel. That tension, between what I was recommending and how I lived, showed up everywhere and doomed the project from the start.

But even that failure taught me a profound lesson: that I shouldn’t chase the trends or try to do what was popular. I have to follow what is authentic to me, what I’m passionate and inherently curious about, even if it seems to lead somewhere random. I still follow that principle to this day.

Goals as a means to self-knowledge

I notice in my narrative goal-setting that I had a lot of beliefs about what my work “should” look like, many of which turned out to be misconceptions. 

For example, I kept returning to the idea of “one-on-one coaching,” since that has always been such a powerful trend in personal development circles in the San Francisco Bay Area. But I would eventually learn that coaching wasn’t a good fit for me, and I was much better suited to monetizing my knowledge through courses that could serve many people at once.

The same is true for public speaking. I wrote:

“I speak regularly at events and conferences around the world, using them as platforms to spread my message and impact people directly.”

And for consulting:

“I consult with the world’s most influential organizations, shaping the development of products and services that manifest human-centered design principles and what I’ve learned about human-centered work.”

I had other misconceptions around what was important in business. I put way too much emphasis on having a slick brand for Forte Labs in the early days, for example, pouring time into logos, business cards, and beautiful slides:

“The Forte Labs brand has been completely redesigned and refreshed, presenting a look and feel equal to the world’s most innovative brands. This brand is reflected in the website, all social media properties, and printed materials, providing a consistent and alluring experience with every interaction.”

With the benefit of hindsight, the brand didn’t matter at all and would only become important and clear when BASB came about.

Many of the goals I set for myself were most useful not because I successfully achieved them, but because I didn’t. They taught me what I truly wanted and didn’t want. That self-knowledge and self-awareness is far more valuable than whatever I would have gained by unquestioningly pursuing those goals to their completion.

I had so many fanciful ideas of what I thought I wanted, such as “having breakfast in a super modern, gorgeous kitchen.” It turns out that acquiring a “super modern” kitchen requires renting a super modern apartment, which is very expensive. I found that I much preferred to live in affordable places that didn’t stress me out when rent was due.

Another example is “frequent business travel,” which felt so luxurious and prestigious for a short period, until I quickly realized I wanted to avoid it at all costs. 

The runway is longer than you think, but the plane can soar higher than you imagine

Many goals I set for myself seemed so far out of reach, and were far out of reach! In my 2015 goal-setting, I dared to write:

“I’m generating $200,000 per year in pre-tax income.”

This felt like a totally audacious sum, and it would be 4 years until I achieved it in 2019. A couple of years later, as the pandemic fueled online business growth, our personal income would reach 7 figures, which my 2015 self could scarcely have imagined. I would give anything to travel back in time and see the look on his face as I delivered the news.

This is a case of a common phenomenon I can detect in retrospect: that many goals take longer to accomplish than I first imagined, yet once I do, their potential can greatly exceed my limited imagination. In other words, I tend to underestimate the “runway” needed for the plane to take off, but once it achieves liftoff, it can soar far higher than I can imagine.

Another example of that principle is my book advance. In 2015, I wrote: 

“I have a book deal with an upfront advance of at least $50,000.” 

You can sense in my language a kind of pleading tone – I really would have been happy with a book deal of any size.

It would, in fact, take me 6 years to receive the first part of that book advance, but when it came, it was $325,000, a sum that exceeded my combined income from my first 5 years of self-employment. Today, a decade after I wrote those words, I’ve made $1.85 million from the book and associated product sales, and project that number should reach $6.8 million in earnings over its lifetime. Astonishing.

It’s amusing to look back on some of my earliest goals, such as to “reach financial freedom,” which I defined as having enough passive income to meet my expenses:

“Become financially secure (passive income = expenses) by age 33 (May 4, 2018).”

I understand now that that goal was based on a misconception that work was something I should try to “escape.” From the vantage point of today, I wouldn’t want to stop working even if I had the choice to, as it’s one of my greatest sources of learning and fulfillment. And I know that the sense of security I was looking for isn’t found in a certain size bank balance, but in a holistic life of rich relationships, including a healthy relationship with risk and uncertainty.

The same is true for personal goals. Almost every year, I wrote down something along these lines:

“I perform some type of exercise every day, and vary my exercises to keep me in shape and support overall health.”

Over time, I tested out a variety of theories about health and fitness, such as Paleo-style diets, CrossFit workouts, high-protein breakfast, etc., that were making the rounds at the time. None of them ever really stuck for long.

Regular exercise has always been my “white whale,” and it is only over a decade later, in 2025, that I can say I’ve (more or less) formed that habit. I find that I’m able to do it now because I’m in a different life stage with different, more aligned motivations: not to get ripped or impress girls, but to avoid aches and pains and be more active with my children.

I see so many examples of just how long it takes many desires and intentions to come to pass. We tend to think in weeks, months, quarters, and, if we are really long-term thinkers, at the scale of a year. But I can’t help but conclude, as I look back at 20 years of goals, that most of my most meaningful pursuits took years to manifest.

Goals for the business

I see many examples in my business-related goals of a variety of theories and hypotheses I was testing at various points.

In 2020, I tried having “no meeting days”:

“Each day has a strong unifying intention, either free of appointments so I can focus on producing something, or open and spontaneous to make myself available to people who need me.”

But I would soon discover that a day was too large a block of time, and it fit my energy cycles much better to reserve all mornings free of meetings, and to spend the afternoons on calls.

I can see I consistently underestimated the impact of the economic and cultural environment on my business growth, thinking it all depended only on me instead of trends in online education and the economy:

“Forte Labs is growing explosively, not because of what I’m doing or pushing through, but because of who I’m being.”

I see other examples of my naivete, such as thinking I could “open source” all my content and still have a profitable business:

“Everything I know is open-sourced and available to help people create more freedom, pleasure, and impact in their work and lives, whether they ever buy from me or not.”

Some goals represented major initiatives that turned out to be completely misguided.

“I oversee an online course incubator, which regularly turns out new courses and other offerings that generate income and value for the people that have developed them. I provide every piece of knowledge, service, and counsel the participants need to develop their idea to fruition, and take a percentage while giving them a worldwide sales and marketing platform.”

We did pursue trying to build a platform and marketplace for multiple courses from other instructors for about a year, but that failed miserably as it wasn’t in line with our values or capabilities.

I laugh at how unclear my articulation of what I do has been:

“Our community is the world’s best source of conversations, curated resources, tutorials, and experiments on the future of work.”

I don’t think it’s that much better even today!

I’m also reminded, looking back at goals I’ve set, of just how diverse and wide-ranging my interests are:

“I oversee a portfolio of experiments pushing forward the boundaries of my field, such as group knowledge management, design thinking, science fiction prototyping, behavior change, self-tracking, art and music, crowdsourced collaboration, full-stack freelancing, online marketing, project management, community building, creativity, emergence, history, self-awareness, online learning, time-tracking, visual thinking, and writing.”

This exercise is a reminder to revisit some of those interests that I didn’t have time to pursue in the past, and perhaps resurrect them in a new form.

What I value today

Surveying the long arc of my goal-setting history, it’s clear that getting married and starting a family was the most consequential shift in my life. It changed every aspect of my life, including goal-setting.

One of the earliest goals I wrote down at 20 years old was this one:

“Get married to a beautiful, loving, intelligent, spiritual, sensitive woman who will make a great mother, in a wonderful gathering of our families that creates a community around us, by December 31, 2020.”

That wedding would take place in April 2019, and I couldn’t even imagine how meaningful, complex, and fulfilling that marriage would be.

I can see Lauren’s influence on my goal-setting earlier, however, such as in 2016, when I wrote:

“I respect the cycles of my body, mind, spirit, family, friends, community, nature, and nation, leaning into each season as an opportunity to bring balance to a new aspect of my life.”

She taught me balance, and nuance, and how to savor life in the present rather than only living for the future. I would never have written the following intention if it weren’t for her:

“I am ambitious but equanimous, driven but tolerant. I don’t go to unnecessary extremes, and accept moderation in most areas of my life at any given time.”

Some of the most meaningful, precious intentions for me these days are not the business milestones, but rather the mundane details of a calm and peaceful life:

“We go to bed early, reading and meditating, and fall asleep with a sense of peace and deep gratitude.”

How I set goals today

Around the birth of our daughter in 2022, I noticed that the list format for my goals that I’d kept for over 15 years at that point no longer resonated with me.

It’s because our lives themselves had become non-linear: it was no longer about the steady march of piling one brick on top of another, or winning each leg of a race. We are now a family of 4, with a lifestyle and business that my younger self couldn’t have imagined. Life has become more about enjoying our days, finding meaning in them, and squeezing the juice out of everything life has to offer.

So I switched to a mindmap format to try and capture the non-linear, exploratory, and serendipitous way I think about goals today. The mindmap has three clear parts, reflecting how clearly I see the three main priorities in my life: Family, Health, and Work. 

Here’s the most recent version, as of the end of 2024:

Tiago's Goal Mindmap

For Family, everything revolves around our kids to an extent I wouldn’t have thought possible. Looking at the intentions in that part of the mindmap, I think we fulfill all of them to a great extent, except for buying an investment property, which is something Lauren and I have realized we don’t want to manage.

For Health, my longest-running goals of eating healthy and exercising regularly have finally been fulfilled, but not because of any newfound self-discipline. It’s because we hired a full-time housekeeper and cook who takes care of all our meals. I’m working out consistently, mostly because of the nanny who picks up the kids from school and watches them in the afternoon. In retrospect, the key to my results in these areas depended on getting outside support, not any sophisticated habit formation framework. There’s a lesson there, I think.

The one intention in the “Health” arena I can’t say I’ve fulfilled has been finding a solid hobby I’m dedicated to. It’s more like I have a variety of interests and hobbies that I turn to if and when needed. In retrospect, that fits me better. I think I was expecting to become passionate about something like woodworking, or gardening, or beekeeping, but the reality is, I don’t have much obsessive energy left over after my workday.

And for Work, I once wrote “Total freedom to pursue my interests,” but only recently realized how central that value is to me. This year, I walked away from a plausibly multi-7-figure business opportunity because I couldn’t stand the thought of having to buckle down and focus on one thing for a couple of years that wasn’t perfectly in line with my curiosity.

I also wrote in the past that I would be “at the creative edge of my writing,” but that looks quite different from what I expected. I’ve realized I don’t mainly value writing the most creative, soulful prose, nor pushing forward cutting-edge research. I value popularizing and spreading proven ideas that I know work to more people, who wouldn’t find out about them otherwise. That’s a different kind of “edge,” and I’m finding it requires traits like balance, wisdom, and a sense of perspective. Maintaining those qualities in my work is my own personal “cutting edge.”

These days, I face an abundance of opportunities, a plethora of possible paths forward. It feels much less like forging a path through an impenetrable jungle with my machete, and more like thoughtfully intuiting my way like an experienced explorer tracking an elusive beast.

Everyone has underestimated me, including myself

Looking back at the last half of my life, and how deeply it was shaped by the practice of goal-setting, a final lesson comes to mind: everyone I’ve ever met – including my parents, teachers, friends, professors, colleagues, mentors, and employers – has always underestimated me.

No one ever knew how much I was capable of, not even myself. No one understood or could have predicted how much hard work, courage, determination, and persistence I had inside me, least of all myself. I had to find it all inside.

This thought came to mind as I was driving in the car on the way to pick up my kids, shortly after writing a first draft of this article. It brought me to tears, as I felt myself acknowledging my younger self and giving him the trust and recognition that he so craved. 

Applying that same observation to others has led me to one of my core beliefs: that each person’s potential is inherently unlimited. That’s why I believe so much in education and its limitless ability to transform people’s lives. Why I’m such an advocate of personal development as a discipline that can be planned and pursued systematically. Why it’s so important to me to learn how to leverage AI as a force to unlock people’s talents and abilities. 

The next 20 years of my own journey, I can clearly see, are about helping others craft the life of their dreams as I have. I intend to use everything I know and everything I have to do so.


Follow us for the latest updates and insights around productivity and Building a Second Brain on X, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. And if you’re ready to start building your Second Brain, get the book and learn the proven method to organize your digital life and unlock your creative potential.

The post What I’ve Learned From 20 Years of Goal-Setting appeared first on Forte Labs.

3-Year Update: A Financial Analysis of My Book’s Unit Economics

2025年9月22日 23:46

It has now been 3 years and 3 months since my book Building a Second Brain came out in the U.S., and I’ve just received word that it has now earned out its advance!

That probably doesn’t mean anything to readers, but to me as an author, it means a ton. It means that the “loan” of $325,000 the publisher gave me to create this book has been “paid back,” which means the project as a whole has turned a profit, at least from the perspective of the publisher.

I wanted to take this occasion to determine if it’s also been profitable for me as the author, and to evaluate the holistic financial picture of my book-writing endeavors.

First, the numbers for my book Building a Second Brain:

  • 144,018 total copies sold in the U.S. across all formats
  • $352,246 in total earnings to date (or $10,674 per month on average)
  • On average, I earn $2.45 per copy sold, but that varies by format: $3.69 per hardcover sold, $2.70 per ebook sold, $1.41 per audiobook sold, and only 58 cents per paperback sold. I make 6.3 times as much money for each hardcover sale compared to a paperback!
  • The breakdown of sales by format has been 38.5% audiobook, 32% ebook, 27% hardcover, and 2.5% paperback. This is surprising to me, as I would have expected the ebook version to far outsell audio, since I put so much emphasis on saving digital highlights.
  • My advance was actually earned out around October 2024, or 2 years and 4 months after the book’s release

My second book, The PARA Method, also earned out its (much smaller) advance in this period:

  • 33,779 total copies sold in the U.S. across all formats
  • $63,664 in total earnings to date (or $3,350 per month on average)
  • That amounts to $1.88 per copy in royalties (about 23% less than the first book), and varies between $2.43 for hardcover, $2.25 for ebook, and 94 cents for audiobook
  • The breakdown of formats has been 40% ebook, 32% audiobook, and 29% hardcover (so the ebook was more popular than the audiobook for this title)
  • The advance was earned out around September 2024, only 13 months after the book’s release

Considering these books as complementary titles within the BASB ecosystem, they’ve sold 177,797 copies together in the U.S. and earned $415,910 in royalties for me as the author. If sales continue at the current pace, ongoing sales of these two books should continue to earn me about $5,300 and $1,900 per month, respectively, or $7,200 per month combined. The rest of this analysis only takes into account Building a Second Brain.

I was curious how much my U.S. publisher, Simon & Schuster, has earned from my book so far. Working with ChatGPT and some reasonable assumptions, I estimate they gross about $9.95 per copy sold on average, and after their costs, net about $8.61 per copy sold (which is 3.5x higher than what I make). At 144,000 copies sold to date, that means they’ve grossed $1.05 million, netted $850,000, and paid me $352k, or 41% of it. This doesn’t include their overhead costs, however, which probably dramatically lowers their overall profitability. 

Publisher & Author Shares per book

One thing I take away from this analysis is that the common idea that publishers are raking in the dough while paying authors a mere pittance is mistaken. Under this model, my share seems to represent over 40% of the publisher’s earnings on a per-unit basis, and would probably be over 50% or even more if their overhead costs were taken into account.

Comparing to a self-publishing scenario

Working again with ChatGPT and conservative assumptions, I wanted to model what it would have looked like to self-publish my book on Amazon, knowing everything I know now.

Starting with the hardcover, I would have used Amazon’s KDP Print service. With a list price of $30, the printing cost would have come out to around $6.50. Amazon’s take would have been 60% of the list price, or $18, leaving me with $11.50 per copy sold as my royalty.

For the paperback, also via KDP Print, a book with a list price of $18 would have cost $3.50 to print, and after an Amazon take of $10.80, I’d be left with $7.30. Selling the ebook version for $15 would leave me with $10.35, and the audiobook $8 via ACX.

Assuming I sold the exact same number of copies via the self-published route, I would’ve netted:

  • $447,959 in hardcovers (versus $143,469 I made via traditional publishing)
  • $476,969 in ebooks (versus $124,498)
  • $443,832 in audiobooks (versus $78,492)
  • $26,200 in paperbacks (versus $2,069)

All of these together would have totaled a net of $1.39 million in self-publishing royalties, which is 3.95x as much as I made with a publisher. In other words, assuming the number of copies sold stayed the same, I missed out on about a million dollars. That includes, on a per-copy basis, a self-pub royalty that is ~3x for hardcover, ~13x for paperback, ~6x for audio, and ~3.8x for ebooks.

However, this is based on the following assumptions:

  • The biggest one is that I would have somehow managed to sell just as many copies through my own efforts as I did partnering with a publisher which I think is extremely unlikely
  • This calculation doesn’t take into account the considerable amount I would have likely spent on marketing and promoting the book on my own
  • I’m also confident the mix of formats would be much different with self-publishing, including far fewer hardcovers and far more paperbacks, which would result in a less favorable comparison

Using a more realistic scenario of what I would have managed to sell on my own, such as 70% as many copies sold and a more typical mix of formats, results in a self-publishing grand total of $934,510. That’s still 2.6x what I actually made, meaning I missed out on $582,000 instead of a million. Another way of saying this is that I would have only needed to sell 37,926 self-published copies, or 25% as many as I did, to make the same earnings as I’ve done through traditional publishing. 

Net profit per media type

Including foreign translations

If I include foreign rights and translations, however, the picture changes considerably. To date, I’ve made $276,000 from 225,000 foreign copies sold via 24 foreign publishers. That means I make $1.23 per foreign sale, versus $2.45 on average for U.S. sales, or only half as much. 

But I doubt more than 2 or 3 of those would have happened if I had self-published, which means the differential would have only been around $306,000. In terms of raw numbers of copies sold, U.S. sales have accounted for only 39% of total global sales, and I expect that number to keep going down as new foreign translations continue to be released.

All of this boils down to a simple distinction: traditional publishing still wins when it comes to overall reach plus foreign rights; self-publishing wins when it comes to overall per-copy economics. 

Worldwide, across all formats, I make $1.70 per copy sold. Via self-publishing, I would have made $9.27 per copy sold, or 5.5 times as much (though limited only to the U.S.)

Projecting into the future

If I assume that my book is at the midpoint of its lifetime sales as of now, and will go on to sell another 369,000 copies worldwide, then I can expect to make another $627,540 in earnings through traditional publishing, in contrast to another $2.4 million via a hypothetical self-published route. 

If that comes to pass, that results in a grand total, lifetime earnings number for this book of $1,255,000, versus a hypothetical $4,789,000 via self-publishing.

Including the business upside

What really changes the whole picture, of course, is factoring in the additional revenue we’ve made in the business as a result of the book.

First, there is the difference in timing between receiving a large upfront cash advance, which was used to fund a variety of long-term efforts such as our YouTube channel, versus having to wait to receive that money over a period of several years. That YouTube channel is now the main marketing channel for the entire business, responsible for 36% of our overall sales, so it’s difficult to put a value on it.

Second, we can estimate more or less how much of our product sales happened because of the book by looking at our purchase surveys, which have been completed by over 7,000 customers since the start of 2023, about 6 months after BASB came out.

Based on that data, 34% of all our sales have come from people who first heard about me through my books. With total sales (after refunds) over this time period of $3,541,715, that implies $1.2 million in sales as a direct result of my books. That more than makes up for the lower economics of traditional publishing. However, a self-published book would have also produced a significant upside in product sales.

This also allows me to calculate that each book I sell needs to generate $7.57 in net referred product revenue on average to equal the economics of self-publishing. Or taking into account our approximately 50% margins, each book needs to produce $15.14 gross on average. 

Considering that our average customer lifetime value is $720, that means I need 1 out of every 95 book readers to convert to a paying customer of our courses/products in order to break even with self-pub. In other words, a 1% conversion rate more than makes up for the gap.

My best estimate is that at least 3,859 customers have come in through my books, which is a 1.05% conversion rate! Or approximately 1 in 96 readers so far. This means the traditional model is just barely surpassing the overall economics of self-publishing when downstream products are included.

This also means that my total earnings to date from the book and related sales are $1.85 million, 66% of which is from product sales. That sounds great, except if I had gone self-pub and made 70% as many sales, with the same conversion rate to products, I would have ended up with $6,743,072, or almost twice as much.

Projecting all this into the future, assuming my book is at the midway point of its sales potential, continues to convert 1 in 96 readers to customers, and our customer lifetime value stays the same, the full lifetime earnings outlook for my book should be $6.82 million, over about 7-8 years. That’s an astonishing figure by any measure, and shows that there is still a path to profitability for first-time authors under the traditional model.

Traditional publishing maximized reach and credibility, giving me $6.8 million projected lifetime earnings. Self-publishing might have doubled that number, but with much higher risk and effort. 

The right path depends on whether an author values distribution or economics more.

My overall takeaway is that the two pathways to publishing are different animals: they are optimizing for different things, display different strengths and weaknesses, and make sense for different authors depending on which capabilities they bring to the table, or are interested in developing.

In retrospect, I think it was a smart move to start with traditional publishing, since it gave me:

  1. Authority and credibility I didn’t have before
  2. Reach and exposure far beyond my small, niche online following
  3. The upfront cash to hire a team and build new marketing channels like YouTube 

My first two books have been clear home runs under the traditional model, but I’m also interested in exploring self-publishing and hybrid models in the future to fully capitalize on the credibility, reach, and marketing footprint I’ve built through these endeavors over the last 5 years.

My next book, on the practice of annual life reviews, will be the true test of whether I’ve succeeded in building a sizable readership that will keep coming back to read my books. You can sign up here if you want to be the first to hear about it when it’s ready.


Follow us for the latest updates and insights around productivity and Building a Second Brain on X, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. And if you’re ready to start building your Second Brain, get the book and learn the proven method to organize your digital life and unlock your creative potential.

The post 3-Year Update: A Financial Analysis of My Book’s Unit Economics appeared first on Forte Labs.

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